Sunday, October 27, 2013

Technical Analysis of TATA MOTORS & Trading plan guide

Tata Motors: 15 mins chart

Tata Motors : Hourly chart

Trading Plan for 28-Oct-2013: Price levels mentioned are for NSE Cash Market.

Overall view for Tata Motors is Bearish

However on monday, If Tata Motors Opens above its pivot price of 376.10 we can buy it immdtly for a quick target of 376.9-377.9-378.9. While buying we should keep stop loss at 375.40.

When it reaches near 379 it is likely to halt and if it is not able to cross above 381 then you can think of  short selling it at 379.4 for intraday targets of 376-371. While short selling please keep stop loss at 2 ticks above days high

If overall market, Nifty remains weak then we may see Tata Motors even correcting upto 361-356 in near term. As shown on the hourly chart. 

Happy Trading !!!

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Derivatives Analysis & ZEEL Option Data Analysis of 23-Oct-2013

Looks like the FII's have shorted the index heavily yesterday, be careful while going long as the market may go further down. It is better to spot weak shares and short them.

Follow-up of ZEEL option data: Yesterday we got good shorting opportunity in the stock. However in the later part of the day, the stock recovered and made a new intraday high of  273.50 The option data shows the same story as yesterday unwinding of long positions, see the levels marked in RED.
We will now wait for the stock to show weakness at higher levels and start shorting again.  A word of caution... when you short, keep your profit targets small as the addition of 270 PE open interest shows that 270 will act as interim support and the bulls may not allow it to break so easily.


Happy Trading !!!

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Derivatives Trading Volumes Analysis & ZEEL Option Data Analysis of 22-Oct-13

The Option data of Zeel, at its cmp of 267, seems to show that the stock is not likely to go beyond 274 atleast in the current October series. If correction sets in, it may find support around 250-255. We can see from the marked levels, shown in red, that the traders who were long have started unwinding their open positions. Watch for shorting opportunity in this stock as-n-when the stock trades near 270 levels, keep stop loss of 279 and target will be 251-256.

P.S.: The levels recommended are for cash market only.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Tata Motors Analysis

Tata Motors traders seem to be in a state of confusion. Both bulls and bears are trying to take control but are not getting any good move. while the stock seem to be making new highs, option data is suggesting some other picture. Bulls are in a trapped position or are they pretending to be trapped?
have a look at the 400 PE you will notice that a significant amount of open interest got added here today, if there is correction in sight why will PE writers write these ITM 400 PE? So going by the simple logic are the bulls going to take the stock higher even though the stock has reached very near to its highest open interest OTM CE strike of 400?

Another reason could be that the option writers know that the stock is going to spend significant amount of time at these 375-400 levels and hence have started writing strangle of 390 CE & 400 PE fetching 15+16=31 pts. they are aware that their option will start making loss only if Tata motors trades below 390-31=359 and 400+31= 431....which is very unlikely at least before October expiry.

Best is to avoid this stock as there are mixed signals at the moment.

Wipro & FII Data Analysis

Wipro Option Data as of 14-Oct-13

Wipro seem to be getting ready to correct from its current levels of 500-510  upto 470. As Option writers are seen writting deep-in-the-money calls of 470 with highest open interest addition today while the stock has made a new 52 week intraday high of 508. Delivery qty of the stock too was on the higher side indicating that the retailers have happily bought into the stock and the sellers have offloaded Wipro to them. Let us watch and see what happens to this stock in the coming sessions!!!

I would be looking at opportunity to short the stock as n when it reaches intraday high.

FII Data Analysis

FII seem to be bullish on index as per their trading data shown above, we may see Nifty going higher. It may even cross 6200+ levels in the coming sessions. The recent high of Nifty was at 6229, are the FII's targeting that ? Let us see what happens in the coming sessions. For the moment 6300 CE looks like a good option to buy above 50 for target 75 & 90. keeping stop loss at 37.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

FII Trading Volume Analysis

FII Trading Volm Analysis

A quick glance at the FII's trading data above shows more number of green colored cells than red ones indicating that the FII's are bullish. However the Industrial Output, Manufacturing Sector Growth and Capital Goods data that came in was all negative. So the question remains....will the FII's be able to pull the market higher or will the DII's succeed to bring it down ? Let us see what happens on Monday.

RIL will be coming up with results on Monday, 14th Oct 2013, so be ready for some action.

Let us have a look at the Option data of RELIANCE and see what is going on.

The strikes 900 and 820,  are significant levels to watch. If Reliance cheers the market then we may see it touching 900+, provided the highest open interest build up of OTM 900 CE shifts to higher levels, if not then we may see shorting happening at 900 and may even witness a fall of upto 820 levels before this Oct expiry. I feel shorting at 900 levels are the way to trade this counter as I do not see the highest open interest of OTM 900 CE being broken so easily.
Secondly if you compare the total open interest of OTM 840 PE with 900 CE , you will notice that the 900 CE has 61% more open contracts than 840 PE denoting that 900 will be a tough resistance for the stock. Watch for RIL to come near 900 and then take action.